According to German and Dutch researchers' estimations, the water level in the Caspian Sea will be 9-18 meters lower than today by 2100. According to scientists, this will generate a number of problems in the region's ecology, economy, and political stability. The study was published in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment.

AzVision.az appealed to the head of the Laboratory of Surface Water Modeling of the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Deputy Chairman of the Council for the Intergovernmental Hydrological Program of UNESCO Mikhail Bolgov to comment on findings of the biologist Frank Wesseling, climatologist Matias Preinz and zoologist Thomas Ulke.

- While predicting the water level, European colleagues pay attention to one of the most difficult scenarios, when the temperature rises sharply and the river flow does not increase (or change). The article does not provide us with further details; therefore, we can say that the role of evaporation in changing the level of the Caspian Sea is about 1/3. 2/3 is the effect of river flow, so it is impossible to predict the level without forecasting the flow of water through rivers. In addition, wind and its direction play an important role in evaporation, and this must be predicted. Different needs (irrigation, industry, etc.) must also be taken into account. The article also does not say anything about the amortization mechanism of sea-level changes. If not all the listed factors of sea-level changes are calculated in detail, there will be serious errors in its forecast. That is why the forecast of European colleagues is unlikely to be a "scary tale"!

- Is there another forecast for the development of the Caspian Sea? What kind of plan is being prepared for the future of the world's largest lake?

- The future of the Caspian Sea is uncertain, we only know about an interval of sea-level changes, which is quite convincing. This interval is quite large. According to the knowledge about hydrology and climate processes, it can be narrowed in the future. However, this problem has not been resolved yet. There is a big role of anthropogenic impact on the region, especially the water resources of the Caspian Sea.

- Indeed, it is a fact that the water is drying up. For instance, it is noticeable on the coastline of Baku Boulevard. The same tendency can be observed on the coasts of countries in the Caspian region. How can you explain it? What are the reasons for shallowing of the Caspian Sea and the change of the coastline?

- Water level change of the Caspian Sea is related to the water balance. Averagely, the sea level changes around the equilibrium level (or gravity level). Upper and lower thresholds can last for decades, and this is normal in terms of the probabilistic model of the process. Of course, the position of the coastline also changes, and the process affects the entire sea, even the Volga Delta.

- In your view, how long will the water level drop and the threat of change of the coastline last?

- Today, it is impossible to provide any calendar forecast about the water level of the Caspian Sea. It is only possible to show the probability that the sea level will remain in this or that range.

- What measures can be taken to prevent shallowing of the Caspian Sea? Do the Caspian countries take any steps to prevent this problem?

- In practice, there is no measure to control the sea level. You can only try to close the strait that connects the lake to the sea. It is possible to decrease evaporation losses from the surface of reservoirs in the Caspian but no Caspian country will agree with it.

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