A number of Armenian economists worry about the situation and give explanation. AzVision.az presents Armenian economist Ashot Yeghiazaryan`s thoughts on the issue.
Mr. Yeghiazaryan, what negative impact may the increase of the dollar rate, as well as the fast devaluation of the ruble have on the Armenian economy?
- As in the previous stage of the fast devaluation of the Russian ruble, this time too, it will impact remittances sent to Armenia. People receive their salaries in rubles, the ruble is devaluating, hence the amounts of remittances are cut.
Besides, the general economic decline in Russia directly impacts the Armenian economy because the Armenian economy depends heavily on the Russian economy. The first factor of devaluation of the Russian ruble is the dropping oil price. Now is the next stage of decline of oil prices, and it has started to affect the exchange rate of the Russian ruble immediately. Later, along with the weakening of the Russian economy, the state of the general economy will also affect the devaluation of the ruble. Such a process may start at this stage.
What will happen to the Armenian dram?
The dram is also under the pressure of devaluation. The dram will enter into a stage of devaluation.
A lot of economists predict that the dollar rate will rise to 520-560 drams by December. What are your estimates?
At the end of the day, the dram rate depends on the Central Bank policy. I mean at this stage the Central Bank sells foreign currency from the reserves on the open market but the state of reserves is no good either. In other words, to maintain the exchange rate, the source is the Central Bank’s reserves but in this sense the Central Bank is in a difficult state. It is not correct to guess to what point it will devaluate. But yes, the dollar will cross the line of 500 drams in the next quarter, I think.
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