Pashinyan speaks a lot about both the normalization of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and the Karabakh issue. He has taken certain responsibilities under the Trilateral Statement signed on 9 November 2020. Putin's attitude about Pashinyan's violation of the agreement is not completely clear. The Azerbaijani side probably does not want Pashinyan to go bust. 

Pashinyan's conceptual behaviours, statements and steps are prepared by the 'Orbeli' centre. Pashinyan is aware of the fact that his gains will go down in due course. In that case, it is worth noting what tasks were assigned to the 'Orbeli' centre. Pashinyan:

• doesn't have any intention for the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Karabakh regularization;
• must neutralize dangers (especially from Russia) to his governance; 

The 'Orbeli' centre is well aware of the development doctrine of Azerbaijan and Armenia and knows that it is impossible for Armenia to approach Azerbaijan in 20-30 years according to resource calculations. However, he believes in a miracle, not a pragmatic calculation. He deceives himself. Particularly, the information transferred by Iran created a belief in Pashinyan's government and in the 'Orbeli' centre that Azerbaijan will weaken. 

Since Russia is most likely to change power, Pashinyan is mainly focused on this direction. The personal relations of the speaker of the Armenian parliament, Alen Simonyan with the Chairman of the Russian State Duma, Vladimir Volodin, are a good basis in this regard. Volodin personally received Simonyan several times. Besides, Simonyan went to the meeting of the CSTO PA Council in Volodin's plane. 

Pashinyan tolerates Simonyan's many whims. For instance, although Simonyan spread the news about the abduction of the Prime Minister's son Ashot Pashinyan, no one said anything to bother him.

In addition, Nikol Pashinyan remained silent when Simonyan responded to the Canadian Armenian, who came to Armenia to work, by spitting in his face.

Simonyan's visits to Great Britain and France were more in line with the protocol of a prime minister's visit. Alen Simonyan was a friend of Nikol, a businessman. When Pashinyan was wanted as the perpetrator of the March 1, 2008 massacres, Simonyan hid him in his house together with his family. They are very close friends.

According to the "B" plan of Pashinyan and the "Orbeli" centre, if the tension in the country grows, if the requests to ink the peace deal intensify, the prime minister may resign and Simonyan may replace him in power. At this time, Pashinyan will continue to guide the processes behind the scenes. He will return to power later. This plan is intended to avoid possible tensions on the Karabakh issue and the normalization of ties with Azerbaijan.

Mubariz Ahmadoglu
Director of Political Innovation and Technology Center
For AzVision.az

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