by Ilgar Dadashov (int`l law expert)

It is not surprise that recent sustainable clashes on the Armenian–Azerbaijani border continue to worry Armenia`s ruling elite. Instead of giving up the expansionist policy, fulfilling the requirements of the 4 resolutions of the UN Security Council and as a result putting to the end the conflict being unresolved for many years, official Yerevan is taking another chaotic steps. This time Armenia seeks for partners and turns to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

On October 4, CSTO’s “Indestructible Brotherhood 2015” military exercises taking place in Armenia ended. As a drowning man Yerevan tries to grasp at a straw,namely CSTO. Firstly, on October 1, Colonel-General Yuri Khachaturov, the chief of the Armenian army’s General Staff, accused CSTO members for not reacting to "Azerbaijan’s actions". Later, on October 3, President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan met with Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization Nikolai Bordyuzha and as the Armenia media reported, tensions on Armenian-Azerbaijani border were among the discussed topics.

Why is CSTO considered to be the only break in the clouds for Armenia so far? or be more exact, used to be considered. During the recent years, the Secretary General of the CSTO Nikolai Bordyuzha has made several statements that could encourage Armenia. Nikolai Bordyuzha tried to convince the Armenian leadership that CSTO would support and provide military aid to Armenia if necessary. In fact, these were no more than just words on paper, but now the tone of these words have changed. We can say that the recent statements of the CSTO representatives, which will be analysed below, have ruined the last hopes of the Armenian ruling elite.

While answering the questions of journalists on the reason of the absence of the reaction of the CSTO on the "attacks" against Armenia, Deputy Secretary General of the CSTO Valery Semerikov said that though official Yerevan has raised this issue several times within the CSTO, no decision has been made so far. Later while answering the similar question Secretary General of the CSTO noted that the organization would be able to support any member country only after the relevant appeal. "At present, Armenia`s military forces are able to ensure the security of the country independently," added Bordyuzha. N. Bordyuzha`s statement on the perspectives of the deployment of peacekeeping forces in the region is also important: "The situation is tense in all directions. And now it seems clear that peacekeeping forces should be involved in many of the current "hot spots" of the world. Therefore, development of practical combat mission of collective peacekeeping forces of the CSTO during the exercise is preparing for the possible operations. I do not think they will be in the near future, but, in any case, the CSTO should be ready to apply the peacekeeping force." N.Bordyuzha said.

Through all these speeches and statements one can easily see the position of the CSTO regarding the tensions on Armenian-Azerbaijani frontline and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as a whole:

1) In contrast to the previous statements there is not a single word on the possibility of the participation of the CSTO military force in the possible war over Nagorno Karabakh on the Armenian side. This is natural, as the occupied lands are internationally recognised territories of Azerbaijan, on the other hand, the Collective Security Treaty Organization`s mandate is in force only within officially recognised boundaries of the member countries.

2) The fact that CSTO has not so far adopted any document in favor of Armenia, despite of the all attempts of the latter, gives the ground to say that while Kazakhstan and Belarus are the members of the CSTO, the trend will go on. Unwillingness of both of countries to spoil their relations with Azerbaijan is the key factor in this regard.

3) Finally, I believe that by saying that "at present, Armenia`s military forces are able to ensure the security of the country independently," Mr. Bordyuzha`s true aim was not to praise the military power of Yerevan. Instead, N.Bordyuzha gave clear message to Armenia that the organisation he represents will not interfere in Armenian-Azerbaijani military conflict.

Thus, attempt of Armenia to find the ally in the region against Azerbaijan has failed, thanks to clever diplomatic policy and level of relations between Azerbaijan and neighbouring countries.

AzVision.az

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