Foreign funds pulled $58m (£43m) from local equities on Wednesday, the most in almost a year, and have sold a net $333m in an 11-day run of outflows. The index is down 2.3 per cent this quarter, the only decliner among major Asian markets.
Duterte’s threat to call US President Barack Obama a “son of a whore” if he criticised an anti-drug campaign that’s left around 2,400 dead, and the subsequent cancellation of a meeting between the leaders, “didn’t sit well” with overseas investors, said Rafael Palma Gil, a portfolio manager at Rizal Commercial Banking Group in Manila.
Duterte’s behaviour is taking the shine off a market that has been an investor favourite due to one of the highest economic growth rates in Asia.
“The latest incident raises concern that President Duterte’s unpredictable behavior in politics will be disruptive and could eventually spill into economics and business,” said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank, the Philippines’ biggest lender.
It has “further weakened a market that’s already been made vulnerable by uncertainty over US interest rates, elevated valuations and overseas fund withdrawals,” he said.
The Philippine index is trading at 18.3 times 12-month estimated earnings. While that is down from 19.6 in July, it is still the highest in Asia and at a 32 per cent premium to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The country’s economy expanded 7 per cent last quarter from a year earlier, after 6.8 per cent growth in the first three months of 2016.
Investors may be better off holding cash in the near term as the index could test its 7,500 support level, said Mr Ravelas. The gauge could fall as low as 7,330 in the next two months over concerns the budget deficit will rise when taxes are cut and spending raised, April Lee-Tan, head of research at COL Financial Group in Manila, said on Monday.
“Smart investors should take advantage of the weakness and accumulate because this is all sentiment-driven,“ said Mr Palma Gil. “Other than incendiary statements and killings related to the drug war, investors like Duterte’s economic and fiscal policies or at least what has been communicated so far,” he said, adding that he expected the index would go back up to 8,000.
A deadly bombing on 2 September in Davao City, Duterte’s hometown, and the president’s subsequent declaration of a “state of lawlessness” pose only a limited credit impact in the near term, Moody’s Investors Service said in a statement released on Wednesday.
“If recent events lead to prolonged uncertainty around security or economic policy, such a development would eventually dampen business confidence and consequently, economic outcomes,” Moody’s said. Duterte’s “increasingly controversial law and order policies could exact an opportunity cost for reform.”
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