The former prime minister, who is to make a major intervention in Brussels before May’s Brexit speech on Friday, said the Irish border crisis illustrated the “central dilemma” facing the UK and said it was “sickening” to hear senior politicians question the relevance of the Good Friday agreement.
On Wednesday, the future of the Brexit negotiations was left in the balance when May dismissed the EU’s proposal for a “backstop” plan under which Northern Ireland would in effect stay in the customs union and single market to avoid a hard border, as an attack on the UK’s constitutional integrity.
In comments in support of his predecessor as PM, John Major, who has called for a Commons vote on a second referendum, Blair condemned the government’s approach as unrealistic, and said it was only by staying in the single market and customs union that a hard border could be avoided.
Talking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he said: “On John Major’s speech, I really think people should read it and study it. It is heartfelt and very analytical as to what the problems are.
“Neither he nor I want to make her [May’s] position difficult. This has gone far beyond that. The problem that she has is that there is no way round the dilemma: what she thinks is that it is possible to get the Europeans to give us access to Europe’s markets without the same obligations that the rest of Europe has in the single market. That is not possible.
“It is not a question of a tough negotiation or a weak negotiation. It is literally is not going to happen.”
Blair will on Thursday call on EU leaders to be ready to offer the UK a palatable way back into the union by rethinking its attitude to immigration, something he said he was confident that Brussels would be prepared to do.
May is to make a speech on Friday in which she is expected to reaffirm her decision for the whole of the UK to leave the single market and customs union.
She will propose a system of “managed divergence” under which the UK could retain frictionless trade in some sectors by staying close to EU laws while changing regulations in other sectors to gain a competitive advantage.
The Brexit secretary, David Davis, has doubled down on that position by reportedly threatening that the UK will not honour its £35bn-£39bn financial settlement with the EU unless Brussels backs down on attempts to keep Northern Ireland subject to European Union rules. In a letter to Conservative MPs, reported in the Times, he said the payments would not be finalised until all the issues had been addressed.
But Blair said the UK had a choice of staying close to the EU, minimising economic damage and averting a risk to peace in Northern Ireland, or freeing itself from Europe’s rules “in which case you have economic damage” and a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Blair expressed disgust at senior politicians, such as the former Northern Ireland secretary Owen Paterson and the Labour MP Kate Hoey, questioning the relevance of the Good Friday agreement, which has helped maintain peace since 1998.
He and Major had warned during the referendum that leaving the EU could disrupt peace on the island of Ireland.
On Labour’s move to support a new customs union with the EU, he said: “I think the Labour party shift is sensible, although frankly I think they will very soon find that we have got to move further in order to solve the dilemma ourselves.”
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