The average global temperature next year is expected to be around 1.1C above pre-industrial levels, bringing it close to the record-breaking heat seen in 2016 when temperatures peaked at 1.15C above the 1850-1900 period used as a baseline for global warming.

The rise will be the result of human-driven climate change combined with modest warming from the El Nino weather phenomenon in the Pacific, which pushes up temperatures further, the scientists said.

Forecasts issued by the Met Office at the end of 2017 for global temperatures this year were closely in line with what has been seen in 2018.

Then they predicted around 1C of warming, and estimates for January to October are showing temperatures around 0.96C above pre-industrial levels.

The predictions of a close-to-record hot year is the latest in the warming trend the world has seen in recent years.

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: "Our forecasts suggest that, by the end of 2019, 19 of the 20 warmest years on record will have occurred since the year 2000."

Dr Doug Smith, Met Office research fellow, added: "The forecast for 2019 would place next year amongst the five warmest years on record, which would all have occurred since 2015. All of these years have been around 1C warmer than the pre-industrial period."

The latest warning of rising temperatures comes after the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) revealed that 2018 was among the warmest on record, with only 2016, 2015 and 2017 hotter.

As countries met to agree the rulebook to implement the Paris climate agreement, which aims to limit temperature rises to 1.5C or 2C above pre-industrial levels, scientists said carbon emissions continued to rise this year.

Experts have warned of the need to take urgent and dramatic action across society to start to bring down emissions rapidly and put the world on track to limit temperature rises and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

After the two week United Nations climate summit in Katowice, Poland, ended last week, many thought that not enough progress had been made in acting to limit emissions and curb warming at the lower 1.5C target.

Climate change came under the spotlight this summer when scientists linked extreme weather events around the world, from heatwaves to wildfires, with elevated global temperatures.

They warned that in a warmer world, such events will only become more frequent.

The Independent

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